Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton ousted four-term U.S. Senator John Cornyn on Tuesday, riding President Donald Trump’s endorsement to a runoff victory for the Republican Senate nomination, U.S. media projected.
The race was called shortly after polls closed in Texas’ westernmost counties, which are in a separate time zone from most of the state.
Paxton’s victory will force Cornyn into retirement early next year – and the Republican political establishment in Washington into embracing a candidate it has long opposed.
Cornyn, 74, was backed by Republican leadership in the fight of his political life against Paxton, a 63-year-old scandal-plagued attorney general who won Trump’s endorsement last week.
Paxton will face Democratic state Representative James Talarico in a high-profile race that could help decide control of the Senate and may become one of the most expensive in U.S. history.
The 37-year-old Democrat is a Presbyterian seminarian and leading fundraiser whose campaign has appealed to independent and moderate voters.
Senate Republicans’ campaign arm warned in an internal memo last year that a Paxton nomination “would hand Democrats an opening to flip Texas and cause Republicans to divert hundreds of millions of dollars that would otherwise be spent winning key battlegrounds.”
Cornyn told Fox News on Tuesday morning he would support the nominee if he lost but warned, “Ken Paxton will be on defense the whole time between now and November” if he wins the runoff.
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate over Democrats, who would need to net four seats in November’s election to take control of the chamber. Democrats are on defense in two states Trump won in 2024 – Georgia and Michigan – but could win the chamber by holding those two seats and flipping North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska.
A competitive race in Texas, where no Democrat has won statewide since 1994, would expand the party’s path to a majority and potentially force Republicans to redirect investments from more competitive battlegrounds to protect their nominee in a state that Trump carried by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024.
In backing Paxton a week before the runoff, Trump chose loyalty over electability as he continues to flex his iron grip over Republican voters. This month, Trump’s endorsement of Republican primary challengers ousted incumbents including Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy and Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie.
“Donald Trump just endorsed a man who was impeached by his own party, indicted for felony fraud, reported to the FBI by his own staff, ordered to pay $6.6 million to the whistleblowers he tried to destroy, and whose wife is divorcing him on biblical grounds,” said Lauren French, a spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC. Paxton has denied any wrongdoing.
LOYALTY TRUMPS ELECTABILITY
Talarico starts the general election with a three-month head start after defeating U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett on March 3.
Talarico’s initial lead in the opinion polls has evaporated, with the most recent survey showing the race in a dead heat against Paxton, with 8% of likely voters undecided.
In a three-way primary in March, Cornyn had a slim lead over Paxton but failed to cross the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff.
Political experts say Tea Party and MAGA voters are the Republicans most likely to turn out in primaries and runoffs, an electorate that favors Paxton.
Trump contrasted Paxton’s “extreme” loyalty with Cornyn’s wavering support. But Cornyn said last week he was putting his trust in Republican voters, framing the choice as “a strong nominee” who can help candidates down ballot “or a weak nominee who jeopardizes everything we care about.”
Cornyn’s campaign attacked Paxton’s character from the beginning, including calling him “Crooked Ken” and launching a dating game that allows users to swipe on Paxton’s alleged mistresses.
Paxton challenged Cornyn to stop the negative ads “for the good of our party.”
“We have already changed our TV ad traffic … to ensure our campaign ends on a positive note (so) that we can focus on beating the leftist lunatic in the fall,” Paxton wrote on X last week.
HOUSE RUNOFFS IN SEVERAL DISTRICTS
Voters across the state will also choose their nominees in more than a dozen congressional districts. Both parties’ nominees will be chosen in the San Antonio-area 35th district, an open seat Democrats are hoping to flip.
Republicans will choose between state Representative John Lujan and U.S. Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz.
Democrats’ preferred candidate is Johnny Garcia, a public information officer for Bexar County Sheriff Javier Salazar.
Democrats have accused Republicans of meddling in their primary through a Republican-aligned political committee called Lead Left PAC that has spent nearly $1 million boosting Garcia’s opponent, Maureen Galindo, a fringe candidate who has been widely condemned for antisemitic comments.
(Reporting by Nolan D. McCaskill.)
