A boom in the use of artificial intelligence may displace some workers, but the overall effect on aggregate employment or wages in the U.S. has been muted so far, according to a European Central Bank study released on Monday.
Firms have been investing heavily in AI in recent years, raising fears that humans will be replaced at increasing rates, curbing overall employment and widening inequality along the way.
However, data seem to be dispelling these fears for now, even as they show that certain workers, especially junior staff in highly exposed sectors, seem to be vulnerable.
The U.S. economy started to adjust to the AI boom years ago and jobs from the most vulnerable sectors have been reallocated to other segments, slowly reshaping the labour market, the ECB argued in an Economic Bulletin article.
“All else being equal, between 2019 and 2025 jobs with a high substitution risk grew by around 15 percentage points less than jobs with a low substitution risk,” the ECB said.
Employment in jobs with a high risk of AI substitution, such as economists or graphic designers, declined on average by more than 4% between 2019 and 2025, the study said.
By contrast, employment in jobs with a low risk of AI substitution, like electricians or high school teachers, increased by 13% over the same period.
The share of low-risk jobs in total U.S. employment has increased from 23% to 25%, while the share of high-risk jobs has dropped from 35% to 33% as a result of this shift.
The study also found no major income effects from the transformation but left the door open for a bigger change over time.
“AI substitution risk has had no significant impact on wage growth since 2019,” it said. “Over time, as the labour market continues to adjust and AI tools become more generative, income effects may be more pronounced.”
(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi)
