In less than two years, Britain’s governing Labour Party has gone from a landslide election victory to a historic rout at last week’s local and regional votes that has put Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s job on the line.
While incumbents across Europe face similar difficulties, Britain’s politics have become ever more febrile in the decade since it voted to leave the European Union: Starmer, its sixth leader since then, promised change but has struggled to deliver.
While much of the voter anger appears to be directed at Starmer himself, opinion polls consistently point to a handful of core sources of frustration at both national and local level.
ECONOMY/COST OF LIVING – The gnawing sense of decline in current living standards and future prospects is felt by many households across the industrialised world. In Britain that is sharpened by big earnings disparities between the wealthiest and the rest of society: OECD data show higher-than-average levels of income inequality and a big gap in the earnings of the top 10% and those of the rest.
Moreover inflation has proven “stickier” in Britain than elsewhere – one reason why its interest rates are higher than in the euro zone, pushing up mortgage repayments for houseowners. A high exposure to gas prices also means Britain’s economy is seen as being hit harder than others by the Iran war.
The tax take is also on course to reach a historic high, infuriating many voters, especially at a time when a record number of people are reliant on welfare benefits, feeding into an argument about fairness.
IMMIGRATION/ASYLUM – This is among the most polarising themes in domestic politics and sometimes beats the economy into second place as a top voter concern. Controlling immigration was a top priority for pro-Brexit voters in the 2016 referendum but net arrivals reached record levels after it left the bloc – boosting the ratings of the anti-immigration Reform UK party of Brexit-backer Nigel Farage. Since a 2023 peak, net immigration forecasts have been revised down, not least because more Britons are leaving the country.
PUBLIC SERVICES – Improving public services eroded by years of austerity after the global financial crisis of the late 2000s was a key election promise of Starmer in 2024 – and in particular to revitalise a state-run National Health Service stretched close to breaking point by the COVID-19 pandemic. Waiting lists for healthcare hit a peak in 2023 and have since fallen back but they remain above pre-pandemic levels with lengthy backlogs for many services. There is also widespread exasperation at under-resourced local government and justice services, plus patchy access to NHS dentistry.
LOCAL ISSUES – Polling by the YouGov market research company ahead of the elections showed dissatisfaction with the state of Britain’s roads ranked highest among local concerns, with 37% saying it was the single most important issue facing their local area in a survey released last month. There has been a huge media focus on the dangers caused by unrepaired potholes despite extra funds to help local authorities fix their roads. One widely cited industry estimate in March said the backlog of repairs now meant only half the road network could be classified as in good condition.
CRIME – Although headline statistics show a long-term drop in crime rates for most offences, surveys show one in five people consistently see crime and insecurity as the most important issue facing the country. Analysts say some of that could be down to the way crime is portrayed in media or features in TV shows. Others note genuine concern about the rise in specific offences like shoplifting, low conviction rates for other crimes and delays in justice due to lack of resources in the prosecution service.
(Writing and reporting by Mark John）
