In July, it took a call from U.S. President Donald Trump and the threat of crushing tariffs to halt five days of fierce fighting between Thailand and Cambodia.
This week, border clashes reignited, ending the Trump-backed ceasefire. Thailand has drawn a clear line: tariffs must not be used to force peace with Cambodia.
“Bangkok’s resistance is a test for Trump’s tariff play, but the tariff has always been a blunt instrument,” said Chong Ja Ian, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore.
“Whether it can get a lasting ceasefire over longstanding and deep-seated animosities has been and is doubtful.”
Trump, in his quest for the Nobel Peace Prize, has sought to mediate in a number of conflicts in recent months, with mixed results, while also alienating some countries in the process.
TARIFFS AS LEVERAGE IN REGIONAL CONFLICTS
His push to halt fighting between India and Pakistan in May – during which Trump said he used sky-high tariffs as leverage – strained relations between New Delhi and Washington, threatening a strategic partnership between two powerful democracies.
India denies tariffs played any role in ending hostilities.
At a rally in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Trump said he expects to make a phone call on Wednesday to stop the fighting between Thailand and Cambodia, without elaborating.
Thailand’s Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow has emphasised that resolving the border conflict should remain separate from the ongoing trade negotiations.
In October, the United States and Thailand announced a reciprocal trade framework that maintains a 19% tariff on Thai products while identifying areas for potential tariff cuts.
“We feel that it’s unjust already that we should be subject to a unilateral tariff of 19%, and perhaps they want to impose even more tariffs if they’re not happy,” Sihasak said.
RISK AND REWARD AHEAD OF SNAP POLLS
Thailand and Cambodia have disputed parts of their 817 km (508 miles) land border for over a century. Efforts to address overlapping claims have made scant progress, leading to periodic military flare-ups.
The current hostilities come as Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul – who took power in September after his predecessor was ousted over the border issue – prepares to dissolve parliament next month and trigger snap elections in March.
Anutin has already faced criticism over his government’s slow response to deadly floods in the south last month, threatening to derail his Bhumjaithai party’s ambitions.
“It puts Bhumjaithai in this position of angling to prove its leadership mettle during its short stint in leadership and that’s quite clearly to try to win votes in the election that’s coming,” said Laura Schwartz, a senior analyst at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.
While higher tariffs remain a risk, Anutin and his party may seek to harness nationalist sentiment by taking a tougher stance on trade and separating it from the border dispute.
Anutin faced sharp criticism from some of the more nationalistic elements when he signed the ceasefire agreement brokered by Trump and Malaysia, said Voranai Vanijaka, a lecturer at Bangkok’s Thammasat University.
“So he’s going to keep Trump away for now,” he said.
A nationwide poll in August showed Thais overwhelmingly trust the military, which has been most strident in its response to Cambodia, over the political leadership.
“Thailand may face an immediate tariff blowback, but it is betting on its military superiority and the limited nature of the conflict,” said Chong.
“It probably believes that it can prevail and the Trump administration will live with that result.”
(Reporting by Devjyot Ghoshal)
