By Linda Pasquini
The British pound held firm against the dollar on Tuesday, maintaining Monday’s gains, as traders geared up for UK inflation data, a Bank of England meeting and an expected start to a U.S. easing cycle this week.
Sterling hovered slightly in positive territory on the day at $1.3224, having risen 0.7% a day earlier.
The pound is up 3.85% versus the dollar so far this year, on track for a second consecutive year of gains.
“Signs of a bolder Fed easing path could cause that trend to go further, at which point the BoE would start to give more thought to exchange rate strength bearing down on the inflation outlook,” analysts at Lloyds Bank wrote in a note to clients.
While the Bank of England is widely anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, after a 25-basis-point cut last month, futures markets implied a 38% chance of a quarter point cut, up from 20% on Friday.
“This week’s MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) decision will be independent of what the Fed decides but over the medium term the exchange rate channel is one factor that ought to limit expectations for policy divergence,” the analysts concluded.
Inflation figures, set to land on Wednesday, will be closely watched after data last week showed Britain’s economy stagnated unexpectedly in July.
The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week and signalled a “declining path” for borrowing costs in the months ahead as inflation slows and economic growth in the euro zone falters.
The pound was flat against the euro at 84.235 pence.
