Traders shipped the most jet fuel from Northeast Asia to Europe in almost a year in June as lower freight rates and ample Asian supplies spurred exports, according to shiptrackers and three trade sources, amid fears of a Middle East supply disruption.
Some 350,000 metric tons (2.8 million barrels) of aviation fuel is heading to Europe from South Korea and China, Kpler data showed, with some trader estimates at 465,000 tons for bookings made in June.
These shipments are expected to slightly ease Asia’s jet fuel oversupply and provide a floor to prices in the near term, analysts said.
Vitol, BP, Aramco Trading, Gunvor and Unipec, the trading arm of Asia’s largest refiner Sinopec, chartered the five tankers that loaded in June, the data showed.
Vitol and Saudi Aramco declined to comment on the matter, while Gunvor, Unipec and BP did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Northeast Asia jet fuel exports rose in June as refiners increased production after completing maintenance at their plants and as “product cracks” strengthened, Vortexa’s head of APAC analysis Ivan Mathews said, referring to fuel profit margins.
Traders mainly pivoted their spot cargoes to the West to cash in on lucrative margins and a drop in freight rates, given a lack of spot buying interest from regional importers recently, two Singapore-based trade sources said.
These trade flows “were purely opportunistic, spurred by geopolitical tensions that sent Northwest Europe cracks surging, while freight rates on modern newbuild vessels remained attractive enough to justify the move”, said Kpler senior lead research analyst Zameer Yusof.
Physical jet fuel prices in Northwest Europe were $60 to $80 per ton higher than in Asia for most of June, LSEG data showed.
Europe’s jet fuel demand typically rises in summer, a peak travel season. June flight numbers there were up 5.2% on year and 7.8% on month, a Eurocontrol report showed.
At the same time, jet fuel prices in Europe rose on fears supply might be disrupted due to conflict in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the cost to ship 90,000 tons of jet fuel on LR2 tankers fell to a one-month low of about $40 to $45 per ton for bookings made before the Iran-Israel conflict began on June 13.
At least four new LR2 vessels have been booked to carry jet fuel from east to west in June and July, data from two shipping sources showed.
Typically, maiden voyages on new vessels will be cheaper because some owners want to accumulate tracking history and mileage, one shipbroking source said.
But analysts did not expect Asian jet fuel prices to rise with the increase in exports to Europe.
“Asia remains chronically net long jet/kero by around 625 kbd in June and July, and Europe-bound flows won’t make a meaningful dent in that surplus,” Kpler’s Yusof said.
“It’s hard to stay constructive when China is targeting jet/kero exports exceeding 2 million tons per month.”
China exported 1.92 million tons of jet fuel in May, up 20% on year.
(Reporting by Trixie Yap)
