The dollar sank to an almost seven-week low on Tuesday as investors braced for U.S. data revisions that could show the jobs market in worse shape than initially thought, shoring up the case for even deeper Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
The dollar index fell to lows of 97.323 in Asia trade, representing the weakest level for the greenback since July 24, ahead of the release of preliminary benchmark revisions for jobs data covering the period from April 2024 to March 2025.
Economists anticipate a downward revision of as much as 800,000 jobs, which could signal that the Fed is behind the curve in efforts to achieve maximum employment.
“The employment numbers are getting worse and worse at a heavy rate,” said Alex Hill, managing director at Electus Financial in Auckland. “That’s translating into a weaker U.S. dollar slowly, but we expect that to accelerate.”
Advisors to the Trump administration are preparing a report laying out the alleged shortcomings of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which they may publish in coming weeks, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources.
Last month U.S. President Donald Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her, without evidence, of faking the employment data. U.S. bond investors say they are seeing cracks emerging in the outlook, warning the market is underpricing long-term fiscal risks and the danger posed by White House pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates.
Traders’ expectations of more aggressive Fed easing are gradually increasing. Pricing of Fed funds futures on Tuesday implied an 11.6% probability of a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, compared with an 11% chance on Monday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, with a cut of at least 25 basis points viewed as a certainty.
Gold set a new record high, up as much as 0.5% to $3,656.92.
The euro appreciated 0.1% in Asia hours, trading to as much as $1.1778, the strongest level since July 24.
Its appreciation was restrained as France’s parliament brought down the government on Monday over plans to tame ballooning national debt, deepening a political crisis that is weakening the euro zone’s second-largest economy.
The European Central Bank is widely expected to hold rates at its policy meeting on Thursday. Analysts from ING said they expected limited spillover to European financial markets, as “the hurdle for pricing in more European Central Bank easing is high.”
The yen strengthened against the dollar, reversing weakness from Monday after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned. The currency was 0.3% stronger at 147.125 yen and speculation turned to who could succeed him.
“There may be growing expectations that macroeconomic policy could tilt toward easing among foreign investors in particular,” analysts from Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities wrote in a research note. “Regardless of the political situation, if weak U.S. economic data—including employment data—continue, the bar for the BOJ to raise rates will likely become higher.”
The Indonesian rupiah weakened 0.8% after the government replaced its finance minister on Monday. Bank Indonesia was seen buying longer-dated government bonds on Tuesday in an attempt to stabilise the market, according to two traders.
The Australian dollar fetched $0.6606, up 0.2% in early trade, while the kiwi traded 0.2% higher at $0.5949. The offshore yuan traded 0.1% stronger at 7.1193 yuan per dollar, while sterling traded at $1.3576, up 0.2% so far on the day.
(Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter)
