Britain’s electricity and gas grid operators expect sufficient supplies this winter, with more power imports and domestic generation available than last year and high gas storage levels in Europe, they said on Tuesday.
Britain’s National Energy System Operator (NESO) and National Gas publish annual reports about the supply and demand picture for the coming winter to help business and government prepare.
“It is positive to see that (electricity) margins forecast for this winter are the highest since 2019/20,” said Craig Dyke, director of system operations at NESO.
NESO said its base case for de-rated margin, which is a measure of the amount of excess capacity expected above peak electricity demand, is currently 5.2 gigawatts (GW) for winter 2024/25, or 8.8% the peak average cold spell demand, up from 4.4 GW, or 7.4% last winter.
The improved margin comes despite the closure of Britain’s last coal plant last month.
More interconnection with Europe, after the opening of a 1.4 GW power link between Britain and Denmark at the end of 2023, more generation and battery capacity had led to the increase, NESO said.
Wholesale energy costs have stabilised since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked record high prices in 2022 but NESO warned there is a still a risk geopolitical events could impact the market.
“While the overall energy system is showing greater resilience, disruptions in global energy markets remain a possibility,” the report said.
NESO expects peak electricity demand at 44.4 GW this winter, similar to the 44.9 GW peak seen last winter.
GAS SUPPLY
Britain uses gas for around a third of its electricity production while around 75% of the country’s homes are also heated by the fuel.
Sufficient gas supplies expected with solid supply from Norway, imports of Liquefied Natural Gas and Europe’s gas storage sites almost full, National Gas said in its winter outlook.
With escalating tensions in the Middle East however, it is also monitoring global events.
“Factors beyond our control such as the weather, global market developments, and the wholesale cost of gas will all influence the gas supply and demand situation in GB,” Ian Radley, National Gas System Operator Director said.
Demand from homes is expected to be higher than last year due to slightly lower energy prices while demand from power plants is expected to dip as increased renewable generation comes online.
Peak day gas demand this winter is expected at 474 million cubic metres (mcm)/day versus a peak supply capacity of 601 mcm/d, National Gas said.
(Reporting By Susanna Twidale）
