Iranian and European officials will meet at the U.N. General Assembly in New York next week in a test of whether the two sides can find a path back to diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear programme, while lowering tensions with Israel and the West.
In his first trip to the West since his election in July, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will land on American soil six weeks before a close Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election that could put former President Donald Trump – a staunch opponent of compromise with Iran – back in office.
Three Iranian officials told reporters that Pezeshkian, a relative moderate, will deliver a message that “Tehran is open to diplomacy”, while emphasizing that Tehran will not bow to pressure.
Iran’s leaders hope to see an easing of U.S. sanctions over its nuclear programme. But relations with the West have worsened since the Iranian-backed Hamas militant group attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7 and as Tehran has increased its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Overshadowing the General Assembly are explosions this week of pagers and hand-held radios used by the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, raising fears of a wider Israeli-Arab conflict.
It is unclear whether the Europeans and Iranians can find areas for compromise in New York. Iran has accelerated its nuclear programme while limiting the U.N. nuclear watchdog’s ability to monitor it.
Britain, France and Germany, known as the E3 and the sole European powers to sign on to a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, have pushed for a tougher policy to pressure Tehran back to dialogue, fearing that Washington’s electoral distractions have emboldened Tehran and left little room for diplomacy.
Pezeshkian may have little room to yield. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, not the president, calls all the shots on Tehran’s nuclear and foreign policy.
“Iran’s rulers believe that the tense standoff with the West over Iran’s nuclear programme should end … but through negotiations from a position of power not pressure,” said an Iranian official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Kelsey Davenport, director of non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association advocacy group, said substantive talk before the U.S. election were unlikely.
But interim steps, such as Iran receiving some sanctions relief in return for expanding IAEA monitoring of its nuclear facilities, could be possible.
“De-escalation is feasible. I think it would benefit both sides,” Davenport said.
IRAN SIGNALS WILLINGNESS TO TALK
Khamenei signalled in an August speech a willingness to resume nuclear negotiations. The appointment of Abbas Araqchi as Iran’s foreign minister also sent a positive signal – he was one of the key architects to the 2015 accord that limited Iran’s ability to enrich uranium in return for a lifting of Western sanctions.
But scepticism remains on both sides over what can be achieved with the U.N. meetings, where Pezeshkian and Araqchi are set to meet European officials.
For the Europeans, who remain party to the nuclear deal abandoned by Trump in 2018, there is a sense that Tehran’s leadership will not change course and that a broader accord encompassing the nuclear programme and Iran’s geopolitical role is unrealistic for now.
That’s particularly true given Iran’s drone and missile attack on Israel last April and its alleged transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia.
“I think we are looking for less for less. You do something on this and we do something on that. If talks resume it will be transactional and not transformational,” said one European diplomat.
A second Iranian official said Tehran welcomes “the less for less idea as the circumstances are far uglier than 2015”.
The United States, its European allies and Tehran’s arch foe Israel accuse Iran of using its nuclear programme as a veil for efforts to try to develop the capability to produce weapons. Iran says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only.
SNAPBACK SANCTIONS
The West has few levers to pressure Tehran amid concerns the next U.S administration, be it led by Trump or current Vice President Kamala Harris, will need time to review policy.
That could leave too little time to put a joint action plan together before October 2025, when U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which enshrined the nuclear deal and provided the power to restore U.N. sanctions, expires.
“That risks taking away our principal tool of pressure on Iran so we have to apply pressure now,” said a senior European official.
The E3 have yet to decide if and when to “snap back” sanctions, but for several months have raised the spectre of doing so to try to restore some leverage on Iran before the new U.S president is inaugurated at the end of January.
Highlighting their frustration at the outgoing U.S. Biden administration, the E3 went ahead in June with a resolution rebuking Iran at the U.N. atomic agency despite American reservations that it could exacerbate an already tense geopolitical atmosphere.
European diplomats and a U.S. official have said the Biden administration has tried to keep the Iran file off the president’s desk to make room for other priorities.
“With their election approaching, the Americans are not ready for serious negotiations … However, if necessary, we will initiate contact with the Europeans and will not wait for the U.S.,” Araqchi told state television on Sept. 15.
A State Department spokesperson said that the United States is “closely coordinating with the E3 on our approach to Iran, including with regard to Iran’s concerning nuclear advances.”
The 2015 deal is all but dead and the international unity during that deal, when Russia and China stood alongside Western powers, no longer exists.
“Given the tortured history, a future deal is likely more difficult to achieve and less effective in curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions,” said Ali Vaez, an analyst with the International Crisis Group.
(Reporting by Jonathan Landay )
