The prime ministers of India and Canada could benefit politically in the short term from the unprecedented expulsion of top diplomats from each country, analysts said on Tuesday.
Canada kicked out six Indian diplomats on Monday, linking them to the murder of a Sikh separatist leader and alleging a broader effort to target Indian dissidents in Canada. India retaliated by telling six Canadian diplomats to leave.
Although the tit-for-tat move sent bilateral relations skidding to a new low, Narendra Modi and Justin Trudeau are unlikely to mind too much. Both leaders are in their third terms and face political challenges.
Analysts suggested the move could bolster Modi’s image as a hawk on national security.
“I think people will see the government of India standing up to intimidation and coercive measures applied by a developed country,” said Harsh Vardhan Shringla, India’s former foreign secretary. “The public will strongly back Prime Minister Modi and the government.”
In a June election, Modi suffered a setback when his Bharatiya Janata Party unexpectedly lost its majority. In his weakened position, Modi is forced to rely on regional allies to form a coalition government.
Canada is home to the highest population of Sikhs outside their home state of Punjab, or about 2% of Canada’s population. Demonstrations in recent years to carve a separate homeland have irked India’s government, which regularly accuses Canada of harboring separatists.
Harsh Pant, foreign policy head at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think tank, said the more Trudeau targeted India, the better it was for Modi.
“(He is seen as) a leader of a country standing up for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of a nation. … That someway encapsulates why Modi and his popularity will not be dented,” he said.
For Trudeau, whose Liberal Party is trailing far behind in the polls for a national election that must be held by October 2025, the news took the spotlight off a supposed effort by unhappy legislators to urge him to quit and let a new leader take over.
“There will be time to talk about internal party intrigue at another moment,” he told reporters when asked about the matter on Sunday.
“Right now, this government and indeed all parliamentarians should be focused on standing up for Canada’s sovereignty, standing against interference and looking to be there to support Canadians in this difficult moment.”
The leaders of both Canada’s left-leaning opposition parties, whose support Trudeau needs to keep his minority government alive, said they backed the expulsions.
But Cristine de Clercy, professor of politics at Trent University in Peterborough, said any bump for Trudeau would likely be brief.
“You could say, yes, the short-term upside is to displace headlines,” she said. “The list of domestic issues that he has to address is so much longer and more complicated than this single incident in a faraway country.”
The politically influential Sikh community has backed the Liberals and other parties in recent years. At least one leader said he welcomed the expulsions but did not expect the dispute to impact domestic politics.
“It shows that the government is actually holding India to account, which is actually their job,” said Moninder Singh, a spokesperson for the nonprofit B.C. Gurdwaras Council which represents Sikh institutions in the province.
(Reporting by Anna Mehler Paperny)
