Britain’s cereal harvest is on track to be the worst since comparable records began in 1984, according to an analysis published on Wednesday, as crops wither after one of the driest and hottest spring-summer periods on record.
England saw its warmest June on record and the UK its second warmest, while England and Wales experienced their driest July on record, according to Met Office data.
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit said the tough growing conditions may have knocked as much as 2.5 million metric tons off Britain’s cereal and oilseed harvest compared to earlier forecasts, costing UK arable farmers up to £390 million ($524 million) in lost revenue.
It cited provisional yield estimates produced by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board suggesting wheat, spring barley and oat yields will all be down, with the estimated wheat yield well below the ten-year average at 6.8 tons per hectare.
It noted that with 54% of the wheat crop harvested, if these average yields hold, the UK cereal and oilseeds harvest would be 19.5 million tons, surpassing 2020 as the worst harvest on record since detailed records began in 1984.
This was even after accounting for good yields forecast for oilseed rape, it said.
“Even if yields are revised up, 2026 is now likely to be one of the five worst harvests since 1984, which would mean that four out of five of the worst harvests on record had occurred this decade after periods of extreme weather made worse by climate change,” the ECIU said.
Earlier this week, the National Farmers’ Union warned Britain could face shortages of certain foods due to the drought and called for the industry to be given tax breaks to improve water storage.
Last week more than 100 organisations wrote to new Prime Minister Andy Burnham urging him to make food a national priority alongside defence and energy.
Farmers across Europe have also warned of a slump in production and rising prices due to the extreme weather.
($1 = 0.7441 pounds)
(Reporting by James Davey）
