Britain will have enough gas and electricity supply this summer, the country’s network operators said on Tuesday, despite declining domestic gas production and fears over energy supplies from the Middle East.
Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and halted Qatari LNG production, which accounts for around a fifth of global liquefied natural gas supply.
“While the situation in the Middle East has understandably raised questions about Britain’s gas supplies, our forecasts indicate the market has the capacity to deliver sufficient supply to meet demand this summer,” Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, director of energy systems and resilience at National Gas, said in a statement with its Gas Summer Outlook for 2026.
ALTERNATIVE SOURCES
Domestic gas supply from the UK Continental Shelf is expected to be 6% lower than last summer, at 13.1 billion cubic metres, reflecting years of declining North Sea output.
Imports of gas from Norway are expected to rise by 24% to 12.2 bcm, while imports of LNG from other countries are expected to soar by 65% to 2.7 bcm, National Gas said.
Wholesale gas prices are up 50% since the start of the conflict, forcing Britain to pay more to attract LNG cargoes from alternative sources.
“The duration of these higher prices will depend on how long it takes Qatari production to recover and shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz,” the outlook said.
Domestic energy consumers will be protected from the higher wholesale prices by regulator Ofgem’s price cap nL4N3ZL0GF, with the current level set until the end of July.
Total gas demand is expected to be similar to last summer, around 29.8 bcm.
Gas-fired power plants typically provide around 30% of the country’s electricity but demand is volatile over the summer months, National Gas said, depending on the availability of wind and solar power.
SURPLUS ELECTRICITY EXPECTED
Strong wind and solar power output and seasonally lower demand mean Britain is likely to see a surplus of electricity supply this summer, the National Energy System Operator said in its outlook.
NESO, which is responsible for the country’s electricity networks, said it had increased flexibility, such as measures to encourage customers to shift demand to times when supply is high, with some energy suppliers paying customers, usually via money off their bills, to use extra energy at certain times.
Peak summer electricity demand is forecast at 29.7 gigawatts, unchanged from 2025.
The outlooks cover the period from April 1 to September 30, when gas and electricity demand is typically lower.
Winter outlooks covering October to March, to be published later in the year, could reflect greater impact from the Middle East crisis, the operators said.
(Reporting by Susanna Twidale）
