China will fall out of Germany’s top five export destinations for the first time since 2010, dropping to seventh place as shipments decline 10% to 81 billion euros ($95.04 billion) this year, a government trade agency forecast on Monday.
China, which was in fifth place last year, will be overtaken by both Britain and Italy, according to Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI).
“On the one hand, the Chinese domestic market is weakening,” said GTAI analyst Christina Otte.
“On the other hand, more and more German suppliers are producing locally instead of exporting there.”
China’s share of total German exports will fall to 5.2% this year from around 7.5% in 2021, GTAI said.
US REMAINS GERMANY’S TOP TRADING PARTNER
The U.S. remains Germany’s largest export market in 2025 despite a projected 7.3% decline to just under 150 billion euros, far ahead of France, the Netherlands and Poland.
Roland Rohde, GTAI’s Washington representative, warned the U.S. decline could accelerate to 8% or 9% for the full year and continue into 2026.
WEAK 2026 FOR GERMAN EXPORTS, OUTLOOK REMAINS SUBDUED
Overall German exports will rise 0.6% to around 1.6 trillion euros in 2025, remaining at 2022 levels for the third consecutive year, GTAI said, based on official trade data for the first three quarters.
The outlook for 2026 also remains subdued, the agency said.
German imports will grow more strongly by 4.4% to 1.4 trillion euros, reducing the trade surplus to 195.4 billion euros – the lowest since 2012 excluding the COVID-19 years of 2020 to 2022.
TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA WIDENS
Germany’s trade deficit with China will hit a record 87 billion euros as imports from the country rise more than 7% to around 168 billion euros, accounting for 12% of all German imports.
“The developments reveal that de-risking from China is progressing only slowly on the import side,” Otte said, noting that China’s share of German imports has risen again after declining slightly in the previous two years.
($1 = 0.8523 euros)
(Reporting by Rene Wagner)
