Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre strode on stage for a rally at a union headquarters north of Toronto, as Canadian country music blared.
“Who is voting for a change in Canada?!” he yelled.
Poilievre, a 45-year-old career politician, then evoked nostalgia for the 1970s, when he said it was possible to pay off a mortgage in seven years in Canada compared to the decades it would take in some cities now.
The opposition Conservatives, who a few months ago had a 20-point lead in polls, are expected to lose Monday’s election to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals thanks largely to Carney’s tough words for U.S. president Donald Trump.
But Poilievre’s focus on cost of living is resonating with one set of voters: the young, and young men especially.
A poll by Nanos on April 24 found 49.3% of voters aged 18-34 support the Conservatives, compared to 30% support for the Liberals. When all age groups were considered, the Liberals led 42.9% to 39.3%. Filtered for men of all ages, 45.5% prefer the Conservatives compared to 36.7% for the Liberals, the poll found.
It surveyed 1,307 Canadians from April 21 to 23, and is considered accurate plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
To Canadians under 35, Poilievre represents change after nearly 10 years of Liberal rule under Justin Trudeau – what Poilievre often refers to as the lost Liberal decade. How to afford a house and general living expenses, rather than relations with the United States, are their top concerns.
Carney has distanced himself from Trudeau’s policies since taking over in March.
“I’ve lived through the struggle of trying to get groceries, paying your bills and trying to save and start a family,” said Joshua Dwyer, 24, a first-year journalism student at Toronto Metropolitan University, who was attending his third Poilievre rally. “It doesn’t work under the Liberal government. We’ve tried it for 10 years and it doesn’t work.”
Polls have tightened in recent days and Poilievre has drawn large crowds to such rallies. Though voter intention and large crowds do not necessarily translate to seats in Canada’s electoral system, youth turnout, particularly in the most populous provinces of Ontario and Quebec, could be key to an upset by Poilievre or to determining whether the Liberals get a majority in Parliament or have to rely on support from other parties to rule. Young people are historically the least likely to vote.
Given the generational split, Conservative youth TikTok accounts are pushing a trend on the platform that encourages young conservatives to convince their parents to vote for Poilievre. Liberals have sought to compare Trump to the populist style of Poilievre, who wants to end government funding for the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, dismantle homeless encampments in cities and did not allow press to travel with him on the campaign trail.
Poilievre only mentioned Trump once, some 20 minutes into his Vaughan rally.
His campaign team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
FEWER OPPORTUNITIES
The average home price in Canada has risen about 70% since 2015, peaking in early 2022 during a high interest rate period, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.
Carney and Poilievre have both talked extensively about housing and want to eliminate the federal sales tax on new homes.
Cameron Pinto, a 24-year-old paramedic student at the rally, said he had more confidence in Poilievre’s approach, which he believed would reduce government involvement and allow the private sector to spearhead new housing development.
“I’m here because I believe that mismanagement of the last 10 years has caused a lot of problems,” Pinto said.
Carney, 60, is new to electoral politics but has stressed his role as a crisis manager running the central banks of Canada and Britain during the 2008 financial crisis and Brexit – events that took place when many Gen Z voters were children.
Young Canadians’ discontent and frustration mirror the United States and Europe, where young people have also leaned Conservative in recent years.
“I think there’s an undercurrent among young adults that there are no longer the opportunities that earlier generations faced,” said Paul Thomas, professor emeritus of political studies at University of Manitoba.
The significance of such a shift remains to be seen, said Thomas.
“They haven’t learned the habit of voting. They don’t see it as much of a duty, as old people like me do.”
(Reporting by Rod Nickel;)
