Brazilian prosecutors presented a streamlined version of charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro this week over a plot to overturn his 2022 electoral loss, which could boost the chances of a final ruling before next year’s elections.
Prosecutor General Paulo Gonet divided the 34 alleged coup conspirators into five different criminal complaints “to optimize the progress of legal proceedings,” he wrote in a court filing. The complaint against Bolsonaro involves seven others.
That could mean a dramatic, televised Supreme Court trial gets underway by the middle of the year and potentially wraps up by December, said a person with knowledge of the court’s plans. A conviction would add to obstacles keeping Bolsonaro out of the October 2026 presidential election.
Prosecutors have not publicly discussed the electoral consequences of the case, but have underscored the alleged threat to Brazil’s democracy in the last election.
Still, ruling on Bolsonaro’s case this year would require extraordinary speed from Brazil’s Supreme Court, which is overseeing the case. A criminal case that involved dozens of politicians over a decade ago took the Supreme Court six years from the moment charges were presented until a final ruling.
“While it is not impossible, no definitive timeline can be guaranteed,” said former Supreme Court Justice Marco Aurelio Mello. “The court must prioritize proper procedures and rights of the defendants.”
A panel of five Supreme Court justices is expected to decide as early as April whether it will hear the charges, said the source familiar with their thinking.
Some legal experts remain skeptical about a verdict this year.
Raquel Scalcon, a criminal law professor at the FGV law school in Sao Paulo, said the justices will be under pressure to move at the right pace.
Any appearance of speeding up proceedings to influence the 2026 election could prompt questions about their impartiality, she said. But, she added, given the importance of the case, the court will also be criticized if it moves too slowly.
A 2017 study from the FGV law school shows that, on average, it took the court almost four years to conclude cases involving politicians with special standing, once they accepted charges.
However, recent rulings, such as the conviction of Bolsonaro supporters who vandalized government buildings after the 2022 election, show the court is able to move quickly when motivated, said Ivar Hartmann, a law professor at Insper in Sao Paulo.
“This could mean that they accept the charges in two months, and open the penal case and rule on it by the end of the year,” Hartmann said of the judges.
Bolsonaro’s lawyers, who have denied he provided any support for an alleged coup, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. His attorney Celso Vilardi told TV channel GloboNews that, based on early signals from the Supreme Court, “it seems they want to do something rather quickly.”
ADDING OBSTACLES
Bolsonaro faces five criminal charges, including taking part in an armed criminal organization and attempting a violent overthrow of democratic institutions.
While the maximum combined sentences for these crimes could exceed 40 years, Rogerio Taffarello, a lawyer and partner at Sao Paulo-based law office Mattos Filho, said any convictions would likely involve intermediate sentences, totaling 20 to 30 years.
The case before the Supreme Court is just one of the barriers to Bolsonaro’s stated aim of running for president next year.
In 2023, Brazil’s federal electoral court barred Bolsonaro from public office until 2030 for abusing his political power in two different instances during his 2022 presidential campaign. But his allies are proposing changes to laws that could, for example, reduce how long a politician can be blocked from running for office.
A Supreme Court conviction would add a constitutional barrier to Bolsonaro’s electoral goals, and changing that text would be a far steeper legislative challenge. Brazil’s constitution bars convicts serving time from running for office.
Prosecutors are also expected to present charges on two separate cases in the coming months.
Last year, Brazilian police formally accused Bolsonaro of defrauding vaccination records to falsely show he was immunized against COVID-19. Months later, the police also accused Bolsonaro of embezzling jewelry he received while he was president.
(Reporting by Manuela Andreoni and Luciana Magalhaes;)
