China’s factory activity likely expanded modestly for a second straight month in November, adding to a string of recent data suggesting that a blitz of stimulus is finally trickling through and giving producers in the world’s No.2 economy a much needed boost.
A Reuters poll of 21 economists estimated the official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) would come in at 50.2 when the data is released on Saturday, higher than October’s reading of 50.1 and above the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction in activity.
While there are some signs that Chinese policymakers’ latest moves may be lending support to the ailing property market, which has weighed heavily on domestic demand, officials are now in a race to limit the economy’s vulnerabilities ahead of a second Trump presidency.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said on Monday he would impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods so that Beijing does more to stop the trafficking of Chinese-made chemicals used in the production of fentanyl.
He also threatened tariffs in excess of 60% on Chinese goods while he was on the campaign trail, hikes that pose a major growth risk for the world’s top exporter of goods.
Bank of China – which on Thursday said it forecasts China’s 2025 GDP growth at around 5% – and Nomura returned PMI projections of 50.6, the highest readings. The Economist Intelligence Unit was the only institution to forecast the PMI slipped back into contraction at 49.9.
The mood in China’s manufacturing sector has been depressed for months due to tumbling producer prices and dwindling orders. But last month’s official factory managers’ survey and the forecast for this month suggests the stimulus announcements are improving sentiment.
Exports surged in October, which analysts attributed to factories rushing out shipments to major markets in anticipation of further tariffs from the U.S. and the European Union.
Earlier this month, China unveiled a 10 trillion yuan ($1.38 trillion) debt package to ease municipal financing strains. That followed China’s central bank in September introducing its biggest stimulus since the pandemic to pull the economy back towards the governments growth target of around 5%.
Chinese policy advisers are recommending that Beijing should maintain that same growth target next year and introduce even more stimulus to bolster domestic demand.
There are early signs that the economy is turning a corner.
Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, grew the most since February last month, and a slump in property sales narrowed, possibly indicating that the beleaguered sector was limping back to life.
But industrial output last month slowed ever so slightly from September’s pace and industrial profits continued to fall, pointing to how difficult it is for firms to remain profitable in the current economic climate in China.
The private sector Caixin factory survey will be released on Monday and analysts expect its reading to edge up to 50.5.
($1 = 7.2440 yuan)
(Reporting by Joe Cash)
